El Niño confirmed: INTA warns about opportunities and risks for the 2026/27 campaign

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Specialists from the INTA Climate and Water Institute provide agroclimatic keys to navigate an event that regionalizes water excesses. For this, they highlight the importance of monitoring the evolution of the phenomenon for efficient and timely decision-making.

The latest updates from international centers indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is forming, with over an 80% probability of establishing itself during the June-August period. El Niño is, above all, a climate driver that amplifies and regionalizes the climate variability that our region experiences year after year.

Pablo Mercuri
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According to Pablo Mercuri, director of the Center for Natural Resources Research (CIRN), “the extremes of excess water are concentrated mainly in certain areas and basins, while vast productive areas go through these cycles with favorable and even exceptional conditions for production during El Niño and post-El Niño years.”

He also stated that “it should be taken into account that the signal or impact of a historically established El Niño phenomenon is different for each region, given that the different areas of our country have a different impact on the rainfall and temperature regime during this phenomenon.”

Natalia Gattinoni
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For her part, Natalia Gattinoni, a meteorologist at the INTA Climate and Water Institute, anticipated that, “for the June-July-August quarter, there is a greater probability that accumulated rainfall will be within the average or normal range for the time of year, even with a chance of exceeding historical values in the central and northern provinces of the country.”

Conversely, there are areas in the northern Pampas and Cuyo regions where there is a greater likelihood of experiencing a three-month period with normal to below-average rainfall.

Temperatures
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Regarding temperatures, there is a higher probability that average temperatures for the quarter will be above normal across Argentina.

In addition, Mercuri acknowledged that while the extremes of excess water are concentrated mainly in certain areas and basins, there are numerous productive areas that go through these cycles, marked with a tendency towards El Niño years, with favorable and even exceptional conditions for production.

He also stated that “it must be taken into account that the signal or impact of an El Niño phenomenon, when it is already historically established, is different for each region, given that the various areas of our country have different impacts or responses in their rainfall and temperature regimes during this phenomenon.”

Risks
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Regarding water-related risks, in the case of large basins such as the Paraná, Paraguay, and Uruguay rivers, and their tributaries, Mercuri indicated that these could pose risks to all rural production and populations in surrounding areas and river plains due to the rise in water levels and increased flow of these waterways. He added: “An early consolidation of El Niño during the winter could also generate above-normal rainfall in central-eastern Buenos Aires, including the entire Salado River basin.”

Preventing anf planning
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According to Mercuri, the experience gained from previous events, such as those in 1997/98, 2009/10, and 2015/16, all classified as high-intensity, demonstrates that the key lies in anticipation. “The difference between suffering damage and losses or capitalizing on the opportunities generated by these phenomena depends on making preventative decisions and planning ahead,” he noted.

Measures
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In low and depressed areas, the priority is to prevent and consider the greater risk of planting in flood-prone areas, monitor water tables, ensure water evacuation, and in livestock farming plan for livestock relocation and preventive health measures.

In the middle of the hill, the scenario is mixed: take advantage of the good water availability by choosing crops and planting dates that are not exposed to prolonged waterlogging.

On hillsides and in well-drained areas, the productive opportunity is at its maximum: focus the agronomic strategy on yield by prioritizing high potential. These are also the ideal locations and plots for livestock operations, allowing for the concentration of herds in the event of flooding, for deferred grazing, or for storing pasture reserves.

Crisis with positive echoes?
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In terms of water resources, Mercuri stated that the water that is currently perceived as a threat can be the most valuable resource in the coming years if it is managed intelligently: reservoirs, waterholes, functional wetlands, water storage in the soil profile, agrohydrological systematization of fields and micro-basins, “are not only defenses against excess but also water harvesting devices for the dry cycles or water deficits that will inevitably return”

“The coming climate once again confronts us with the need to think about production systems and territories in an integrated way: each plot within its landscape, each farm within its watershed, each production decision within an agronomic planning horizon that extends beyond the current season,” Mercuri concluded.

Understanding the Child
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The intensity of the phenomenon is related to how warm the monitored ocean area can become. In that regard, Gattinoni explained: “Historically, El Niño has a life cycle that could begin during the April-June quarter, with a weak intensity, and gradually increase in intensity toward spring.”

In other words, “according to current forecasts, there is an equal chance that it will be moderate, strong, or very strong by that time, given the uncertainty that the forecasting system still presents.”

Furthermore, Gattinoni stated that “this is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, so we must wait for changes in the atmosphere (wind, pressure, cloud cover) to consider it truly established and be able to anticipate its impact on changes in rainfall patterns.”

The specialist also explained that “the intensity of the phenomenon is not necessarily associated with greater rainfall or impact, and even depends on the region and time of year.” In that regard, she clarified: “A key to making decisions is understanding how rainfall in our region responded to previous El Niño events.”

He even emphasized that rainfall and temperatures are influenced by phenomena on other temporal and regional scales that can modify the El Niño signal. In this regard, he highlighted the importance of consulting climate and weather forecasts for decision-making.

For the 2026/27 season, initial soil moisture conditions will once again be a key variable for planning in the face of an El Niño scenario. “The quarterly seasonal climate forecasts for rainfall and temperature are another tool for adjusting decisions within the evolution of this phenomenon,” Gattinoni concluded.

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