Who do tipsters really work for?

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Following tipsters—social media figures who share betting predictions—is associated with higher gambling risk among adolescents, according to a study co-led by Miguel Hernández University of Elche (UMH) and the University of Vigo in Spain.

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The study shows that adolescents who actively follow tipsters report higher gambling intention, increased gambling frequency, and psychosocial profiles linked to greater vulnerability. These include lower perceived risk, stronger normative perception (belief that gambling is widespread), and more intense gambling motives—particularly financial ones.

Importantly, the findings indicate that active exposure—following tipsters—rather than simple awareness is what is most strongly associated with risk indicators.

Tipsters operate across social media, messaging apps, and specialised platforms, promoting betting as a routine, profitable, and socially accepted activity. Within digital environments shaped by influencer culture and sports content, their messages are embedded in aspirational narratives and everyday online experiences.

“Tipsters are not just providing information; they act as amplifiers of a broader gambling culture,” explained UMH professor Daniel Lloret Irles, co-leader of the study.

Their content often emphasises winning bets while downplaying losses, contributing to a distortion of perceived control—a cognitive bias that leads individuals to overestimate their ability to predict uncertain outcomes.

The study analysed data from 782 secondary school and vocational students (mean age ~15.8 years), who were classified into three groups: those unfamiliar with tipsters, those aware but not following them, and those who actively follow them.

Results reveal a clear gradient: adolescents who follow tipsters consistently show the highest levels of gambling intention, frequency, and severity. Differences between those unaware of tipsters and those who simply know about them are small or negligible, particularly among girls.

“This suggests that feeling connected to this content—not just knowing it exists—is what increases risk,” Lloret noted.

What about gender?
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The study also identifies gender differences. Boys report higher gambling intention and frequency, consistent with previous evidence linking male adolescents to earlier and more frequent engagement in sports betting.

Researchers describe a convergence between tipster narratives—focused on success, strategy, and control—and male gambling profiles, which may reinforce engagement.

The influence of tipsters operates through two main mechanisms. First, normative influence: repeated exposure reinforces the idea that gambling is common and socially accepted. Second, the illusion of control: selective presentation of wins creates the perception that outcomes can be predicted and controlled.

The findings highlight limitations in current regulation, particularly regarding affiliate marketing on social media. Tipsters often act as intermediaries that attract users to betting platforms, while their content is not always clearly identified as advertising.

Researchers call for stronger regulation of tipster-related marketing, transparency in success rates and commercial intent, and restrictions on gambling content accessible to minors. They also emphasise the need for media literacy programmes targeting adolescents, families, and schools to address persuasive strategies, reduce the illusion of control, and improve risk awareness.

“Exposure to tipsters can act as an early marker of vulnerability, even before adolescents begin to gamble,” Lloret concluded.

Citation
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The study Who do tipsters work for? Tipster exposure and adolescent gambling was published in the Journal of Gambling Studies
The article Who do tipsters really work for? was published in the UMH’s English news section